4/30/10 - T minus 35

I have changed my strategy a little bit as compared to when I started studying. Originally, I was working through all the sample problems at the end of each section, which added a day or two in working through each chapter. Now, I am browsing the problems, making sure I understand conceptually HOW to do them, and picking one or two to review the solutions in detail. I chose to do this in order to speed up the time I spend working through the material and spend more time on the back end working sample exam problems. Originally I had about 2-2.5 weeks scheduled for practice exams, and I wanted to up this to 3-4 weeks. The logic being the more time I spend on actual problems from previous exams and problems of the same type as the upcoming exam, the more I can drill down on the execution of potential exam questions. While it would be great to spend the time on the interim review problems for each section, that seemed like something worth sacrificing to nearly double my time on actual exam-style questions.

I am working my way through joint distribution material now. Some of it has seemed fairly easy, but the material I worked on today was pretty difficult and I will have to look at it again to fully grasp it.

My confidence is at 2.5. I feel like I am getting there, but I certainly don't feel overconfident.

4/28/10 - T minus 37

On 4/26, I had a great night where I got a few good hours in before I was too tired to continue. For some reason, I also couldn't sleep that night, so last night I only got a little bit of time in before I had to give up due to my brain shutting down.

On weekdays my two opportunities to study are 1. lunch and 2. After the kids get to bed. I can usually get a solid 30 minutes in during lunch. Sometimes I find it productive as a quick hit on a topic, but other times I find it doesn't help that much, because I am not able to fully dig into a topic and it only saves me a few minutes that night when I need to start over. At night, between the three kids I can usually get a good start by 8-8:30. My brain usually shuts off anywhere from 9:30 - 10:30, so if all goes well I hope to get two solid hours in each night.

I am near finishing continuous distributions and haven't yet moved to joint distributions. I feel ok with the material, but I know this is just a first pass and I really have to solidify my knowledge in a couple of weeks when I start practice exams.

My confidence level is currently at 2.

4/25/10 - T minus 40

Ok, I am feeling a little bit better about the material now. I spent a lot of time in my notebook writing out the issues I was having trouble with. That helped me at least sort through them in my mind to the point where I can think through them without getting confused. I find myself practicing at various times throughout the day just going through the material in my head to run through it again.

Now, I need to continue to work through the specific named distributions on the syllabus, and get to joint distributions. This week would have been the scheduled week for continuous distributions, so at least I am not behind schedule.

There is still a LOT of material for me to master. While I am feeling better, I can't say I'm all that confident right now. Confidence level today is at 1.

4/23/10 - T minus 42

Tough night last night. I keep trying to work through these concepts of continuous distributions, and while I understand them when reading through them, I'm not able to answer the problem questions accurately. I'm not even getting on the right track with the questions - I'm always a little off in the execution somewhere. There is a chance I am making too much of this current difficulty, but I am beginning to get a little frustrated.

I am thinking it might be a good idea to use this blog to write out concepts I am having difficultly with. While I am writing them out in a notebook, it can't hurt to put them in another format, especially one other people may be able to use for a reference as well.

My confidence level is at 0 today.

4/22/10 - T minus 43

I find myself feeling somewhat less confident after last night. It felt like some of the material I was reviewing I would never be able to do on my own and at the speed required. I could follow along, but it just seemed a little out of reach. I shouldn't be surprised by that I guess, as I am learning new material every day and that is the whole point. I know there is even more difficult material ahead, so I just have to keep going.

I also spent a little time last night reviewing material I've already covered to keep it fresh. Hopefully I will be able to reach a critical mass of retaining ALL the material by the time of the exam!

My confidence level is at about 1.5 today.

4/21/10 - T minus 44

I worked through some material on the distribution functions of continuous distributions last night and worked on 10 sample questions. I didn't actually get any of the sample questions right, but I was in the right ballpark as far as approach on most of them. So, I feel like I'm at least getting the idea as I begin this section. That increases my confidence a little bit today.

I am a little bit ahead of schedule in starting continuous distributions. Below is the schedule I created for myself in regards to material I want to cover each week. Hopefully, I can keep on this schedule in order to complete the material and give myself enough time to review and practice exam questions.

Week of:
April 25 – Continuous Distributions
May 2 – Finish Continuous and start Joint Distributions
May 9 – Joint Distributions
May 16 – Additional material & review
May 23 – Practice Exams
May 30 – Practice Exams

As per the suggestion, I am going to rate my confidence on a 0-10 scale each day, corresponding with a 0-100% chance I feel I will pass on June 4. It is still early, so obviously I am assessing based on material I have already reviewed and my expectation of what is to come. Today I am going to rate my confidence at 3, which may seem low but actually feels high to me. In other words, I feel like I at least have a shot right now. The average overall pass rate is about 35%, and that includes people who were able to put a lot more study time in than I am going to be able to!

4/20/10

I have finished my initial review of calculus. While I understand all the concepts I need to know, I am not yet at the point where I can execute all the derivatives and integrals as quick or as accurately as I will need to. I am going to start learning continuous distributions while continuing to drill on my calculus.

I find it interesting to gauge my confidence level each day. Today I feel like I have a decent shot to pass on June 4, but as I hit new or tough material that confidence wanes and I feel like I have no shot. There is still a long way to go, but I enjoy taking these daily snapshots of how I feel about where I am along the way.

The First Step

After many years of flirting with the idea, I decided to take a serious look at Exam P on April 4, 2010. I am well into my career in a non-actuarial position, and haven't seen Calculus since Fall of 1992! After a week of reviewing the material on the exam, I decided to pull the trigger on a very aggressive exam date - June 4! That gives me only 60 days to start basically from scratch. I know that it will be quite a feat to pass that quickly, and if I fail I plan to take the exam again in the July-August window.

I will use this blog to update my progress and post observations, as it seems every night I end up with another hurdle of something new to learn. So far, I have gone over the probability and discrete distribution material and feel pretty comfortable. I am currently reviewing calculus in preparation for continuous distribution material. In the last week, I have gone from having no recollection of calculus to at least being comfortable with the ideas behind derivatives and integration. I am still mastering the execution of those concepts though!

At this point, I have 47 days to go and have so much material to get through. I hope to have at least 3 full weeks to drill practice exam questions after finishing the material - hopefully I can get there, but I will have to evaluate the schedule week by week.