MFE Wrap up and Exam C begins!

I feel pretty good about the exam. I answered 25 questions with a high degree of confidence, I’d say 22 were 100% confidence and 3 were 80-90%. I didn’t have time to really narrow the 100% confidence v the slightly less, but that should be about right. There were 2 questions I was 50-50 on. One was a guess where I was able to eliminate 3 of the answers, and one was a question where it could have been either answer depending on exactly what the question was asking. On the question I was able to eliminate 3 answers, opinion online seems to be my guess was correct (I have seen others discussing the question and the answer with enough detail that I know it is the same question), and on the other I thought depending on how you read the question you could have thought they were asking for two different things, and both answers were options. In general terms, the name of the thing they were asking for was different than what they described in the question. I have seen practice questions where even though they are asking for an interest rate put you calculate it as a call (because the price goes up as rate goes down), but this was slightly different.

I made pure guesses on 3 questions, but instead of just picking a random answer I went with answers that seemed familiar based on practice questions I had done. I can only remember two off the top of my head. One was a topic that was in my study material but unlikely to be tested and pretty difficult, so I only got a passing familiarity with it. The other was a question I knew how to do in theory, but the answer choice were pretty complex and in variable form. I tried to start it and got nowhere quickly, so just decided to punt as I didn’t think my time was best spent on that one.

I had at least one question I had on my previous exam, maybe two. The one I had for sure I knew I got wrong last time, so even though I knew the answer as soon as I looked at it this time I did calculate it out and double check it.

There were a couple of topics I studied hard for and expected to get at least one question on, but did not. That was disappointing in a way, as I was really prepared for them!

All in all, I think I would have passed this version of the exam had I taken it in the spring (I failed in the spring with the version I took), but there isn’t anything I can do about that of course. I’m pretty confident of having passed, but you never really know until you see the result. I left this exam about as confident as I was after taking FM, which I got a 9 on. I don’t expect a 9 this time, I’m more mentioning that to give some perspective. I was definitely more confident than I was with P or my previous MFE try, which I got a 6 and 4 on respectively.

I have started studying for C. I took one night off, but within 24 hours I was knee deep in C material! I am leaning towards making a first attempt at C in February, with the expectation of taking it again in May and passing then. That being said, the fact of taking it in February will lead me to do everything in my power to pass in February. The studying would be more like my studying for P and FM, just an intense short period of trying to absorb as much as I can to pass.

For C study material, I have the Mahler manual (which I still love) and TIA. I have been using the Mahler manual for my initial review, and listening to TIA in the car. My plan right now is to finish a first pass (reading, highlighting and taking notes, not working problems) in Mahler by Dec 7 and then to start working a problem set. Right now I intend to work the TIA 240 set of problems, as they have video solutions that I think I will learn well from. I have read good things about Mahler’s practice exams, so I may end up using those as a practice question bank as well. I don’t generally take sample exams under exam conditions, I tend to use them as question banks to practice, so doing so a little earlier than normal won’t be all that unusual. Overall, I don’t know that I will have time for much more than 240 questions, and the TIA bank and the practice exams both total to about that number. As I start looking at the questions more closely I will get a feel for what will best prepare me in a short time.

I’m sure the ideas will change as I go along, but that is the plan as of now!

11/15/2011 - T minus 13 hours!

It has been a long time since my last update!

I have put in a ton of hours of quality study time on MFE since the last update. I have taken a handful of full days off from work over the past two months (one or two a week on slower work weeks), and spent those days at a local coffee shop with another student just studying and studying. Studying with someone else, even when you aren't discussing the topics, is a really good way to stay on track. I also credit a few of the things I have learned this go round to him explaining them to me!

That being said, I worked and worked and worked on the Actuarial Brew MFE practice questions until I either had a decent grasp on a topic, the topic was just too difficult, or the topic was too esoteric for me to focus on. I have gotten to well over 70% on this set of questions, I haven't checked the numbers in a while. I also started leaving questions I was competent on unchecked on my list simply because I wanted to do them again and again for practice. So in effect, I wasn't using my tracking list the same way in the last 2-3 weeks.

I also went back over the past 3 weeks and gave some real focus to the SOA sample questions. While I have previously said I felt the questions weren't very good, after spending some more time working on them and pairing them with the Actuarial Brew answers, I like them much better. They are definitely on the harder side in general, but I have gotten to a point where I feel I am competent in over 70% of them. The remaining questions are just questions that are a little out of my range of capability on this go round. I feel that the SOA sample questions are presented very poorly, and the answers provided aren't necessarily that helpful, but in the end I definitely learned some things from working on them.

With all that being said, I don't believe I have rated my chances of passing in quite a while. I really feel like my chances of passing tomorrow are near certain. While it feels wrong to say I am certain I will pass, I can say I am as prepared as I feel I can possibly be, and know the large majority of the material backwards and forwards. If I don't pass this time around, I don't know if I could possibly be any more prepared with another round of studying, so I will only worry about that problem if and when I have it.

I didn't keep track of my study hours for this sitting. Off the top of my head, I would say I put over 200 hours in, which combined with over 200 hours last time is a nice amount to put into an exam. I would not be surprised if I got over 500 hours in total on this one over the past 14 months. Heck, I might be surprised if I got less than 500!

Hopefully tomorrow is the last time I have to look at the MFE material! I have found I really don 't like the ASM manual for this exam, and will probably try to avoid Weishaus authored manuals in the future. I know this is a minority opinion in the internet community, but I really don't like his style or presentation. It goes beyond "not working" for me and gets to the point of annoying the heck out of me. If someone asked me what to use, I would definitely recommend the Actuarial Brew flashcards and practice problems based on my use of them. I am ambivalent on the TIA seminar - while I didn't hate it, it was not nearly as good as the TIA courses for P and FM. I don't know if that is because of the type of material or the instructor, but either way I would steer someone towards the Actuarial Brew online seminar even though I haven't used it. As for study manuals, I would say definitely look at all the sample chapters you can to get a taste for the style of the manual, and don't default to ASM because everyone else does. I might suggest a close look at the Mahler manual - I looked at a sample chapter after I was beginning to like his C manual, and I like his presentation better in general. That being said, I haven't seen the whole manual.

Given all the above, I did find the TIA practice exams to be excellent, and I liked most of the questions on the first 4 ASM practice exams. I didn't go beyond ASM exam 4 this time, and there were a few questions I would just throw out of those 4, but for the most part the exams were good.

So, between the 6 practice exams I was using, the SOA 76, the Brew 656 practice questions, and the ASM end of chapter questions, I have done far far far too many practice problems multiple times in the last 14 months. I don't even want to know how many individual problems I have done based on how many passes I made on the material. It has to be a ridiculously large number I don't even want to try to estimate!

9/14/11 - T minus 63 days

I scheduled the exam for 11/16, so now we have a countdown!

I have been working through the book of Actuarial Brew practice questions. To me, these are the most helpful set of questions for the exam material. I have currently completed about 42% of the questions. so far, it had mostly been refreshing on stuff I already knew last time I took the exam. With 9 weeks to go, I am just getting to a place where I have to learn some new material. The new material is not coming easy so far, but in looking back through the blog it never did. I just have to keep pushing and pushing.

I also have done some work on the SOA sample questions. I don't like this set of questions as much, but am working through them for variety. I also like that TIA has video answers to most of the SOA samples. That is one thing that really helped me in previous exams - watching the video answers of questions I couldn't quite figure out. I find that is much more helpful than reading the answers and trying to make sense of them. I may have to incorporate some TIA end of lesson questions in for the topics I am struggling to learn. Last time I tried to use their questions for MFE I didn't really like them, but I think it is worth another look at this point.

The strategy from here is to keep plugging away at practice questions and adding new material to the "stuff I know" category. If I can get to 80-85% on the AB practice questions I will be pretty happy, lets see how that develops.

8/1/11 update

Since the last post, I found out I scored a 4 on MFE. This was a little lower than I was thinking, but that is due to the fact they they raised the passmark. In other words, I got approximately the number of questions I thought correct, but they raised the bar on me a little bit. Fair enough, by all accounts the exam was easier than in previous sittings. I thought it was just as fair as P and FM were when I took them.

I have decided to focus solely on MFE in November. While I did find myself very interested in the C material, passing MFE has to be the first priority by far. I am a little concerned that if I start focusing hard core on new material, the MFE material will begin to fade. As of right now, it still feels fairly fresh, and I would like it to stay that way. Also, given that one of the points of this blog is to come from the perspective of a middle aged person with a family and all the associated responsibilities, I need to be able to have the time for the family responsibilities as well, and be focusing on trying to cram 2 exams worth of information in my head at once.

The current plan is to start studying seriously sometime this month. There are only 3.5 months left, so I need to get moving. I expect to start working on either the SOA 76 or the Actuarial Brew Questions first, hopefully in the second or third week of the month.

MFE Results

The MFE passing candidate numbers came out yesterday. My number was not on there, so I did not pass.

I am interested to see what my score was. Perhaps counter intuitively, I would rather see a 5 on there, confirming I did about as well as I thought I did on the exam. If I get a lower score than that, I didn't get correct many of the questions I thought I did.

My strategy right now is to study the C material as thoroughly as I can in July. I am going to try to make one pass through all the material without working practice questions. Then based on how I feel about the C material and what I think my chances of passing in October would be, I will decide whether I spend the next few months focusing purely on MFE, or if I give C a shot first and then take MFE again as well.

I think it might be a little silly to try to do both exams, and maybe I would be trying to do too much for a person with a family and a full time job. On the other hand, I also think trying to get that done would motivate me to focus on it every day. Either way, I think once I get my MFE score and see how I feel about the C material after a pass through, the path will become pretty clear.

6/27/11 update

I have been moving along with the early studying for exam C. My goal has been to get about 2 hours per weeknight in for a total of 10 hours per week. I haven’t really been at that pace, getting more like 4-6 per week in.

I ordered Howard Mahler’s study manual, which is a little more expensive than ASM. It is also HUGE! That is a good thing, as I am finding it pretty effective so far. The manual breaks down everything into short chapters. So far, some of them are so short or so basic I can just skim them and mentally check them off. When I hit material I have to work through, it is nice to have an easily digestible chunk of material to think about and then move on. Most of the questions and even some of the topics should be skipped the first time through (Mahler lays out the system in the beginning of the manual), so it isn’t really as intimidating as it might seem. I like the “bite size chunks” approach so far, we shall see if that holds up.

I also have been listening to (and watching) the TIA lessons, but I have been spending more time with the Mahler manual. I would say a few concepts were easier to grasp from the TIA lessons, and when I hit them in Mahler, while they were still explained well, I thought TIA made them a little easier for me to grasp. My ultimate goal here is to keep a pace with both, so I don’t spend too much time getting bogged down in one or the other, and hopefully the balance of approaches will make things easier to grasp overall. Also

My goal is to have the first review of everything done by 8/27 or so. That gives me two more months, and then I will have approximately 8 weeks to work on practice problems. I think I will be able to hit that goal, but I am still pretty far out to tell. I’d estimate I am only 10-15% into the material as of now.

The results for MFE come out in 4 days! I’ll finally found out how that went. While I of course want to find out, I don’t find myself very anxious about it right now. I can’t change it at this point, so I am trying to stay relaxed!

6/2/11 - C progress and waiting for MFE results

The studying for C is moving along. I have purchased The Infinite Actuary (TIA) course and am going through the first sections of that. I have also downloaded the Mahler sample chapters and have been reviewing that. I have ordered the Mahler manual, but it has not arrived yet.

For both of these sources, I have mapped out a timeline of how I want to progress. The timeline would give me two months after finishing the material to just review practice problems. The two sources don't correspond by chapters and seem to take different approaches to organizing the material. I'm not sure at this point if I will end up using one as a primary source, or just try to divide my time between both knowing there will be overlap in various places.

I decided to buy the Mahler manual after reading the sample chapters and noticing how he breaks down the information into bite size chunks, and he seems to provide detail down to the most basic level. I feel I could really benefit from a "building blocks" approach to this material. I bought the TIA seminar as it has the same instruction who taught the exam P seminar. I loved his course, and felt it was totally key to me passing that exam, so I have a lot of faith he can get to to passing C as well. I have to admit that thus far I am not as impressed with the C lessons, but I still like them. I think his approach really pays off once the light bulbs start going off and you really start getting it, as he shows you how to deal with specific types of exam questions. Hopefully I will be getting it sooner rather than later!

The pass/fail results for MFE will be released July 1. I have spent a little more time thinking about it an analyzing my possible scenarios, and I still expect to get a 5 or 6. I would say I have a 65% chance of a 6 and 35% chance of a 5. Of course those percentages aren't based on anything but how I felt about groups of questions coming out of the exam as well as my gut feelings. The time waiting definitely gives you a lot of time to think about your results, whereas with the first two exams I didn't spend much time thinking about the exam after it was over because I already knew I passed!

5/19/11 - 3 days after MFE

I’m getting restless. I was just getting into the full swing of studying and now I have to stop?? I want to study!

I’m not 100% thrilled with my performance on MFE. Although I feel there is a good chance I passed, I SHOULD have been able to answer almost every question there. I put in a lot of hours, but for some reason I don’t think I ever got 100% full steam on this exam until the last two weeks. I can only speculate, but I feel that three reasons for that were: 1. I had a ton more time that I did previously, 2. I got derailed for a week at a time a couple of times due to “life” and 3. The material (especially the practice problems) just wasn’t that interesting to me.

Another factor that I think came into play is that I was missing the internal drive that pushed me for P and FM. When I was taking those, I was trying to accomplish and prove something. In effect, I had a type of negative energy fueling me – I was pushing against something. I wanted to get out of my job, get a new job, prove I could do something incredibly difficult. With MFE, I really only had positive energy fueling me – I already had the actuarial job and was in a supportive environment, it is expected that I won’t pass an exam or two, and I was given study hours. Now, you are going to think I’m crazy, but while those things helped me, they don’t help give me the internal fuel. I guess I really respond much better to proving something or pushing against something that just doing something that I am given ample help doing. Now, not to say I don’t want the situation I’m in – I do – but it certainly was an adjustment to figure out how to fuel my efforts.

That being said, I still feel I did adequate preparation, and the study time and support I was given was essential to getting where I got with the material. Without it, I wouldn’t have been able to learn nearly as much as I did.

Given the above and the fact that I’m not 100% sure I passed this time around, I feel the fire in my belly again. Right now, I am starting to look at the C material and feel the same kind of drive I felt when I first began to look at the P material. Exam C would be a definite challenge for me, requiring the same amount of effort I put into P, and I believe the material would be as interesting as P was as well. Also, on the chance I do fail MFE, the C window is 3 weeks before MFE, allowing me some time to get back into MFE and take it again.

I have begun to look at the Loss Models textbook and some youtube videos to provide some background on the early topics. I will make another post in the near future with exactly what I have reviewed and some comments on the material. If I do decide to jump in and really study Exam C, I will order The Infinite Actuary course as well. I really liked the instructor when he taught P, and have been looking forward to his course on C.

I think the next week or so will really help me decide if I am going to go into this full speed or take a break. I can’t really do that with MLC, because if I did fail MFE it would be more difficult to take both, as the exams would likely be only a week apart at best (the MLC date hasn’t been released yet).

Post exam wrap up

Ok, I took the exam this afternoon. Here is the lowdown:

As for the exam itself, I thought it was very fair. A good mix of questions, difficulty levels, and syllabus material. Everything I saw was covered in material I reviewed somewhere. The questions were easy enough to follow, but some of the more difficult ones required a bit of cleverness to get the right answers. It really reminded me of Exam P quite a bit.

How did I do? Out of the 30, I felt really good about 18, somewhere between 50-80% on 5, and I totally guessed on 7. Of those 23 I did answer, I know for sure I got 1 of them wrong. For the 7 I guessed on, there were 1 or 2 I thought I knew how to to but never got close to an answer choice, and 5 I just didn't know how to do. So, assuming I got some of my confident answers wrong and some of my guessed answers right, I should be close to a 6 either way. This is the first time I have to wait 8 weeks for results, should be interesting.

I did do something different this time, and I'm not sure how I felt about it. I spent the morning before the exam working through a couple of practice exams in a local Panera. I'm not sure if it was all the noise of the Panera, or just the response to looking at so many questions, but by the end of the morning I was really feeling shaky. I did find 2-3 very simple thing I was doing wrong in the practice exams, so that did help, but overall by the time I was walking into the exam I was feeling very scattered and shaky. I think some of that was just taking the exam on Monday v last Friday or Saturday. I think I would have been best off taking it Friday, but who knows. I think Saturday and Sunday I was tired from doing so much studying the prior 3 days and also I couldn't spent much time studying on Sat/Sun, so I lost the edge a little bit. Also, some exam jitters come into play of course. By the time I got through looking at the first 7 or 8 questions I was ok.

I did run out of time taking the exam, in that I didn't get to do as thorough of a review on the 23 I did answer as I would have liked, and even if I knew how to answer the ones I guessed on I wouldn't have had time for all of them. Now, when I get an answer I am confident in during the exam I usually do run a double check right there if there is an easy way to check the answer via an alternate method. Although this takes extra time, I feel it is important to get the answers you SHOULD get correct, even if it takes a minute or two to look at it a different way. When I was doing my second run though, I would like to have rerun some of the answers I was pretty confident in already, but alas time did not permit.

Ok, this is the first time I will have to wait for a score. Should be interesting. I wonder how much time I will spend analyzing it v. how much time I will spend just not worrying about it. I'm sure I'll have more thoughts going forward now that I'm not studying so much! I am definitely tired of studying, it will be nice to have a break!

5/8/11 - T minus 7

Wow, the exam is getting closer! I haven't posted very much during studying for this exam - I'm not sure if it is just because I have been super busy, or because the additional time I have had to study has caused me to approach it a little differently. While I used the blog last time to keep myself on the pace and allow myself to look back, maybe I haven't had the need to do so this time around? I know it would have been helpful to see my exact progress if I had posted more. Perhaps next time around I will post a bit more.

That being said, we are down to the final week. The past 18 days have been tough. I find myself going from total despair, to a feeling like I have a little bit of a chance, and back to total despair. Two members of my family were sick for an entire week two weeks ago, so it was very difficult for me to find time to study that week, and the time I was able to dedicate wasn't very productive because my attention was split and I was already exhausted from taking care of my family. Last week I was able to put a lot of time in and make a lot of progress, and I fully intend to this week as well.

I have taken some of the ASM practice exams and find them pretty tough. While I am not taking all of them under true exam conditions, I find I am able to answer about 50% of the questions. Some of the Brownian Motion and Ito's Lemma applications I find tough, as well as anything beyond the very basics of the interest rate models sections.

As for things I am trying to add to my repertoire this week, I hope to nail down state pricing, converting from risk neutral to true probabilities and returns, and a few other things I have noticed I need to brush up on here or there. Perhaps in the next day or two I should put together a post with a game plan of stuff I know, stuff I think I can master, stuff I can maybe get but is difficult, and stuff I feel I have no chance on. I will do that if I can, but really my first priority now is studying of course.

This has been a long and grueling process. I'm not sure if next time around I will start studying so early. At this point I feel like I have study exhaustion. I will be in a slightly different situation this time around in that I won't have my results for 8 weeks, so perhaps I will use that time as a total break, since I won't know which exam I am taking next until I get my results. As of now, I intend to take MLC if I pass MFE.

As of right now, my confidence is only at about a 3.

4/20/11 T minus 25

Wow, I haven't updated my progress in a while!

Right now I am in full swing of "study every moment I possibly can". It has been a little different having 6 months to study this time around as opposed to two months, but I think I have handled it ok. I definitely paced myself for the first four months, just building the foundation, but not wanting to either peak or exhaust myself too early. Starting at about 8 weeks out I put a little more intensity into it, and then at about 6 weeks to go the kick really kicked in to the point where I spend every spare hour I can on the material. So, I am back to where I was a year ago, studying every moment possible. I have to say I like the feeling of accomplishment of making progress and the intensity of just pushing and pushing, but I've definitely had my "I just don't get this stuff" days as well. I find no matter how badly the day goes, when I get up the next morning I am positive and ready to go again. Of course, sometimes the next day is rough as well...

At this point I feel like I am making good progress and should be in good shape by exam day. I feel like I will have strong enough grasp of the material as I have studied it and as it has been presented to me. From what I have read online, the exam can be pretty tricky and can involve some questions that are curveballs - something like a concept you know, but you have to figure out what a few things mean first, or that a few things cancel out, etc. This is going to sound a little bit silly to say, but the math on these exams isn't exactly my strong suit. I wasn't a math major, and while I certainly have some mathematical aptitude, there is a lot of things that I just don't know when it comes to certain math tricks. I still have to think pretty hard about taking a derivative, and I don't really know things like adding/subtracting/multiplying/dividing an exponential and the quadratic equation. I will brush up on those before the exam, but my fear is that I won't naturally recognize situations where those skills will be useful.

One item I purchased that has been a big help is the Actuarial Brew study questions. AB has a package of 656 questions, and the answers are classified by difficulty and generally spelled out very well. I found that in working the ASM and TIA problems, neither problem set did I feel was really helping me learn, but the AB problems have really filled that void. By studying the answers provided and knowing how difficult they rate the question, I find I am able to figure out what else I have to learn how to do and where that falls on the scale of difficulty. Having a set of problems I really liked working on is something I really took for granted in P and FM. In P I used the SOA problems, and in FM I used the TIA problems along with the SOA problems. With both of those problem sets, I felt like I could break down and attack the various topics and study the solutions along with the source material to master new knowledge. I really wasn't feeling that way about any problem set for MFE until I found the AB problems. For $45 or so these are a great value!

Ok, 25 days to go. Right now it is hard to rate my confidence in passing. My confidence that I will reach maximum preparedness is 90%, but I am a little wary of the exam itself, so on a 1-10 scale I'd rate my chances of passing at about a 5.5.

2/16/11 – T minus 88

I have been chugging along and making progress. I had one week a few weeks ago that I wasn’t able to put any study time in, and in other weeks I have been putting in 5-10 per week. I haven’t been able to utilize my work study time until this week due to year end work, so my weekly study time should start hitting the 15-20 hours per week range this week.

As far as progress in the material, I am feeling very comfortable with the basic lessons like binomial pricing and have a fair amount of comfort with the concepts of the rest of the material. I have worked on the math of all the sections at least a little bit, but I can’t say I have a very strong handle on some of them yet. I am now in the process of working on the math and problem solving of the Black Scholes formula and the lognormal distribution, and expect to delve into the nitty gritty of the formulas and problem solving of all the remaining sections over the next few weeks. Hopefully a month from now I can feel much stronger with the math of all the sections, and can just work problems for the remaining 50-60 days.

One thing I really have noticed is how valuable the mp3 lessons available on The Infinite Actuary are becoming to me. I used the TIA lessons for my initial review of the material, but I find the real benefit I get from the lessons is to be able to listen to them in my car every day. I have a 35 minute commute each way, which is about the length of one lesson. Once you have gone through the material once or twice and tried some problems, you should be familiar enough with the concepts and formulas so that the TIA mp3s are pretty easy to follow along with in the car. I am finding them really useful for practicing formula memorization, thinking through concepts, etc. In thinking back, I have listened to TIA lessons while mowing the lawn, shoveling snow, and doing general work around the house. This kind of reinforcement is really valuable, especially as it serves as kind of a “hidden” extra study time. Thus far I have put in about 65 hours of actual sitting down and focusing study time, but I have probably put in almost that much in listening to the TIA lessons over and over. I estimate I will put in another 65 or so just listening to the lessons and not counting that as my study time that I keep track of.

My confidence level in passing is still pretty high – I would say a 7.5 right now.

1/3/11 – T minus 130

Ok, so I never did get through the last few sections in as much detail as I anticipated by 1/1. I’ve given all the material a once over, but some of it was a very light once over.

As it stands, most of the first 75% of the material I feel fairly confident I can get down once I start working the problems. The last 25% (Brownian Motion, Ito’s Lemma and Interest Rate models) I either didn’t get to a point of confidence in just reading through the material or didn’t spend much time on at all in my read through. At this point, I am going to start working problems on the first 75% of the material, and will work on fully understanding and mastering those last few concepts once I get to them in my problem sets. I feel that will be the best strategy, as even if I spent another week working on them now, by the time I got to them in problem sets some of that understanding may have faded.

There are about 18 weeks left until the test. TIA has 311 practice problems, and ASM has 479, for a grand total of 790. I’m not sure exactly how I plan to attack these and in what time frame. I’d like to be comfortable with questions from all the sections by the end of March, then I can begin going back and reviewing some of the questions I may already have forgotten!

I will report back in as I start getting through practice problems this week.

My confidence in passing at this point is fairly high – I’d say it is about an 8. I expect working the problems to be very tough and perhaps discouraging at times, but I know if I just put in the time and keep working I should get there by the test date.