MFE Wrap up and Exam C begins!

I feel pretty good about the exam. I answered 25 questions with a high degree of confidence, I’d say 22 were 100% confidence and 3 were 80-90%. I didn’t have time to really narrow the 100% confidence v the slightly less, but that should be about right. There were 2 questions I was 50-50 on. One was a guess where I was able to eliminate 3 of the answers, and one was a question where it could have been either answer depending on exactly what the question was asking. On the question I was able to eliminate 3 answers, opinion online seems to be my guess was correct (I have seen others discussing the question and the answer with enough detail that I know it is the same question), and on the other I thought depending on how you read the question you could have thought they were asking for two different things, and both answers were options. In general terms, the name of the thing they were asking for was different than what they described in the question. I have seen practice questions where even though they are asking for an interest rate put you calculate it as a call (because the price goes up as rate goes down), but this was slightly different.

I made pure guesses on 3 questions, but instead of just picking a random answer I went with answers that seemed familiar based on practice questions I had done. I can only remember two off the top of my head. One was a topic that was in my study material but unlikely to be tested and pretty difficult, so I only got a passing familiarity with it. The other was a question I knew how to do in theory, but the answer choice were pretty complex and in variable form. I tried to start it and got nowhere quickly, so just decided to punt as I didn’t think my time was best spent on that one.

I had at least one question I had on my previous exam, maybe two. The one I had for sure I knew I got wrong last time, so even though I knew the answer as soon as I looked at it this time I did calculate it out and double check it.

There were a couple of topics I studied hard for and expected to get at least one question on, but did not. That was disappointing in a way, as I was really prepared for them!

All in all, I think I would have passed this version of the exam had I taken it in the spring (I failed in the spring with the version I took), but there isn’t anything I can do about that of course. I’m pretty confident of having passed, but you never really know until you see the result. I left this exam about as confident as I was after taking FM, which I got a 9 on. I don’t expect a 9 this time, I’m more mentioning that to give some perspective. I was definitely more confident than I was with P or my previous MFE try, which I got a 6 and 4 on respectively.

I have started studying for C. I took one night off, but within 24 hours I was knee deep in C material! I am leaning towards making a first attempt at C in February, with the expectation of taking it again in May and passing then. That being said, the fact of taking it in February will lead me to do everything in my power to pass in February. The studying would be more like my studying for P and FM, just an intense short period of trying to absorb as much as I can to pass.

For C study material, I have the Mahler manual (which I still love) and TIA. I have been using the Mahler manual for my initial review, and listening to TIA in the car. My plan right now is to finish a first pass (reading, highlighting and taking notes, not working problems) in Mahler by Dec 7 and then to start working a problem set. Right now I intend to work the TIA 240 set of problems, as they have video solutions that I think I will learn well from. I have read good things about Mahler’s practice exams, so I may end up using those as a practice question bank as well. I don’t generally take sample exams under exam conditions, I tend to use them as question banks to practice, so doing so a little earlier than normal won’t be all that unusual. Overall, I don’t know that I will have time for much more than 240 questions, and the TIA bank and the practice exams both total to about that number. As I start looking at the questions more closely I will get a feel for what will best prepare me in a short time.

I’m sure the ideas will change as I go along, but that is the plan as of now!

11/15/2011 - T minus 13 hours!

It has been a long time since my last update!

I have put in a ton of hours of quality study time on MFE since the last update. I have taken a handful of full days off from work over the past two months (one or two a week on slower work weeks), and spent those days at a local coffee shop with another student just studying and studying. Studying with someone else, even when you aren't discussing the topics, is a really good way to stay on track. I also credit a few of the things I have learned this go round to him explaining them to me!

That being said, I worked and worked and worked on the Actuarial Brew MFE practice questions until I either had a decent grasp on a topic, the topic was just too difficult, or the topic was too esoteric for me to focus on. I have gotten to well over 70% on this set of questions, I haven't checked the numbers in a while. I also started leaving questions I was competent on unchecked on my list simply because I wanted to do them again and again for practice. So in effect, I wasn't using my tracking list the same way in the last 2-3 weeks.

I also went back over the past 3 weeks and gave some real focus to the SOA sample questions. While I have previously said I felt the questions weren't very good, after spending some more time working on them and pairing them with the Actuarial Brew answers, I like them much better. They are definitely on the harder side in general, but I have gotten to a point where I feel I am competent in over 70% of them. The remaining questions are just questions that are a little out of my range of capability on this go round. I feel that the SOA sample questions are presented very poorly, and the answers provided aren't necessarily that helpful, but in the end I definitely learned some things from working on them.

With all that being said, I don't believe I have rated my chances of passing in quite a while. I really feel like my chances of passing tomorrow are near certain. While it feels wrong to say I am certain I will pass, I can say I am as prepared as I feel I can possibly be, and know the large majority of the material backwards and forwards. If I don't pass this time around, I don't know if I could possibly be any more prepared with another round of studying, so I will only worry about that problem if and when I have it.

I didn't keep track of my study hours for this sitting. Off the top of my head, I would say I put over 200 hours in, which combined with over 200 hours last time is a nice amount to put into an exam. I would not be surprised if I got over 500 hours in total on this one over the past 14 months. Heck, I might be surprised if I got less than 500!

Hopefully tomorrow is the last time I have to look at the MFE material! I have found I really don 't like the ASM manual for this exam, and will probably try to avoid Weishaus authored manuals in the future. I know this is a minority opinion in the internet community, but I really don't like his style or presentation. It goes beyond "not working" for me and gets to the point of annoying the heck out of me. If someone asked me what to use, I would definitely recommend the Actuarial Brew flashcards and practice problems based on my use of them. I am ambivalent on the TIA seminar - while I didn't hate it, it was not nearly as good as the TIA courses for P and FM. I don't know if that is because of the type of material or the instructor, but either way I would steer someone towards the Actuarial Brew online seminar even though I haven't used it. As for study manuals, I would say definitely look at all the sample chapters you can to get a taste for the style of the manual, and don't default to ASM because everyone else does. I might suggest a close look at the Mahler manual - I looked at a sample chapter after I was beginning to like his C manual, and I like his presentation better in general. That being said, I haven't seen the whole manual.

Given all the above, I did find the TIA practice exams to be excellent, and I liked most of the questions on the first 4 ASM practice exams. I didn't go beyond ASM exam 4 this time, and there were a few questions I would just throw out of those 4, but for the most part the exams were good.

So, between the 6 practice exams I was using, the SOA 76, the Brew 656 practice questions, and the ASM end of chapter questions, I have done far far far too many practice problems multiple times in the last 14 months. I don't even want to know how many individual problems I have done based on how many passes I made on the material. It has to be a ridiculously large number I don't even want to try to estimate!