6/2 - T minus 2

Been quiet on the posting front because I have been focusing 100% of my attention on the studying front. Been hitting the problems and reviewing the concepts every chance I can. I am up to over 75% on the SOA questions, and over 60% on the TIA exams.

I am resigned to the fact that there are some topics I'm just not going to be able to figure out in time. A few types of problems I have tried to work through, putting in a ton of hours over last weekend, but still can't frame them in my head in a way I can remember and execute. I get the gist of what I need to do, so that may help in guesstimating, but I have turned to making sure I have mastered the concepts I already know in the past few days rather than trying to figure out the last few things. My logic is that I want to ensure I do the 70% of stuff I can right, which should be enough in itself to pass. Now, I am sure I will make some math errors and not be able to figure out what I need to do a couple of times, so I don't imagine I will even be perfect on that 70%. The way I look at it now is that I have a "puncher's chance" on this exam. If I can play my cards right, keep my cool, and get a decent set of questions, all I gotta do is hit them just right and with the right timing and I may be able to get out of there with a pass. I am by no means a shoo-in or overconfident on this, but I think I've got a shot.

If I don't pass this time around, the next round is in 7 weeks, and I am pretty confident I will pass then. I've spent only 8 weeks studying, some of that just learning the prerequisites, and I've gotten this far! With 7 more weeks, I will be in great shape for try 2. I'm not focusing on that just yet though, I'm really going to give it a go on Friday!

I don't know if the confidence level really applies anymore, but I could really say it is anywhere from a 3 to a 6. 7 seems too high, and 2 too low. So, assuming it is uniformly distributed on 3->6, my confidence level it at 4.5.